Dirk Dot Net

Creator of useful things. Based in Chiang Mai, Northern Thailand.

Facebook IPO (aka Shark Jump)

Key quotes:

I think the "dot com boom 2.0"has begun. There seems to be so much emotional and reactionary money on the street - especially around this deal. Does no one have a memory of 10 years ago? Valuations based on nothing? Millions spent on vaporware?

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The latest reports is that "**boutique"communities are far more popular** than the broad appeal of "friending"one fifth of the planet.

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This is more of the same over-hyped dot com crap that people are still licking their wounds over from a decade ago. Is Facebook popular because it is mostly "free"and free of the advertising clutter of so many other sights? Yes. As a public company, they will not be able to keep the focus on the "user experience"by monetizing as many parts of Facebook as possible. Frankly, it is the same tired company arc we've seen played out - but because of the size and the media attention - somehow, we think that the rules don't apply to them. Companies are companies and people are people.

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I would say look for Facebook to depopulate severely in the next 12 - 18 months. Right now is their "**highpoint**"in terms of total registered users - now it's all trying to cash-in on the eyeballs that haven't found other ways to express themselves on-line.

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College kids are already leaving in droves - next will be the casual users who don't want to be "bothered"with the fees and subscriptions that will be coming followed by the "hard core"who see the wave of fees as a betrayal to the culture of Facebook.

The timing of the IPO (hype) is astute, but it will indeed be the pinnacle of FB.